3.4 2.a, 3.a - Food insecurity, dryland vulnerability and pinchpoints

Interacting causes of food insecurity in Somalia

Somalia, in the Horn of Africa, experienced a severe food-security crisis during the 2021–23 drought, with major risks for rural livelihoods and displaced people.

Repeated failed or poor rainy seasons reduced water, pasture and crop production. Livestock losses removed milk, food and a saleable asset; crop failure reduced both household supplies and farm earnings. A pastoral household could therefore lose availability and purchasing power together. Selling a weakened animal did not necessarily buy enough grain, particularly when many households sold livestock at the same time.

Conflict and insecurity compounded the physical shock. Displacement separated people from land, herds and social support. Insecure roads and restrictions on movement raised transport costs and obstructed humanitarian access. Imported food and input prices were also affected by wider international shocks, so households faced higher costs while local incomes fell. Drought alone cannot explain why some households reached a much more severe crisis than others.

A WFP report on the period estimated 5.6 million people in Crisis or worse food insecurity, IPC Phase 3 or above, in October–December 2022, and identified famine risks for specific groups in Bay Region. An IPC phase describes a defined severity classification; it must not be relabelled as a declaration that all Somalia was in famine. WFP's contemporary account.

WFP's evaluation published in January 2026 identifies scaled-up food and cash assistance as important in famine prevention during the 2021–23 drought, while noting funding and logistics constraints. This shows that outcomes depended on response as well as hazard. A warning or projection is conditional, and intervention can change the outcome it predicts. WFP, country-plan evaluation.

Who is most at risk

Vulnerability is the likelihood of suffering harm when a food-system stress occurs, and it depends on exposure, sensitivity and the resources available to cope.

Rain-dependent farmers and pastoralists may be directly exposed to rainfall failure; urban households buying most food may be strongly exposed to price rises. Landless labourers can lose wages when harvests fail without owning a crop or herd they can sell. Displaced people may lack documents, income or safe access to assistance. Conflict-affected regions and isolated settlements can face supply and service constraints simultaneously.

Children have high nutritional needs relative to their size and can be particularly harmed by interrupted diets and infection. Pregnant and breastfeeding women also have specific needs, while unequal household power can affect whose food or care is reduced first. Older people and people with disabilities may face barriers reaching shops, distributions or suitable preparation facilities. These are mechanisms of risk, not assumptions that every member of a group has the same experience.

High national income does not eliminate vulnerability. A low-income household in an advanced country can face unaffordable food, high housing costs and limited cooking facilities even when national supply is ample. Conversely, some households in a low-income country have diverse incomes, secure rights and strong support networks. Compare households and local conditions rather than using development categories as complete descriptions of individuals.

Coping can protect consumption now but weaken future security. Selling productive livestock, withdrawing children from school or reducing healthcare can preserve immediate calories while damaging assets and capabilities. Borrowing or migration may help some households, but costs, opportunities and risks are unequal.

Storage, distribution and geographical pinchpoints

A geographical pinchpoint concentrates a flow through a place or facility whose disruption is difficult to replace quickly.