8B.12 - Disunity, nationalism and fragile states

Independence and wider integration

An independence movement may seek a smaller sovereign state while supporting membership of a larger economic organisation.

Separatist nationalism seeks self-government through a new state or separation from an existing one. It can draw on distinctive identity, perceived political exclusion or claims that resources are unfairly distributed. Supporting regional economic integration is not necessarily inconsistent: a movement may want national authority over taxation and services while retaining access to wider markets and common institutions.

The Scottish Government's November 2013 Scotland's Future proposed an independent Scotland within the EU. Treat this as the government's proposal before the referendum, not proof that membership was guaranteed. In the referendum of 18 September 2014, 44.7% of valid votes supported independence and 55.3% opposed it. The outcome demonstrates a substantial movement and a majority decision at that date; it does not measure every resident's national identity or present opinion. 2013 proposal, official 2014 result.

Independence creates practical questions: borders, currency, debt, public institutions, trade and recognition. Joining a regional organisation requires its procedures and agreement; economic integration is not an automatic consequence of a declaration of independence. A new state can gain unilateral authority in some areas while accepting joint rules in others. The old and proposed borders may also contain people with different loyalties, so creating a smaller state does not guarantee cultural uniformity.

Possible futures include negotiated independence, further devolution or continuation of existing arrangements. Compare their conditions and uncertainties instead of predicting that one must occur. A regional identity can persist under any of these paths.

Uneven globalisation and tension

Globalisation distributes opportunities and costs unevenly within emerging economies, creating disputes over representation and the use of national resources.

BRIC originally referred to Brazil, Russia, India and China as large emerging economies. The acronym describes a grouping; it does not establish that their political systems or experiences are identical. Export-oriented cities, skilled workers and asset owners may gain through investment and wider markets. Remote regions, import-competing workers or communities displaced by infrastructure can face different outcomes. Benefits can also spread through tax revenue, transfers and supply chains, so the pattern depends on policy as well as market access.

Unequal gains can produce political tension when people believe the state protects connected investors or one region while neglecting others. Demands may concern public services, wages, environmental protection, land rights or regional autonomy. Economic grievances interact with identity, institutions and leadership: inequality is not sufficient by itself to explain protest or separatism. Evidence of unequal income does not prove that globalisation caused it.

Brazil provides a dated illustration of why national averages need disaggregation. IBGE's 2023 report uses a poverty line of US$6.85 per person per day in 2017 purchasing-power-parity terms, which adjust for differences in local prices. For 2022, the Northeast contained 27.0% of Brazil's population but 43.5% of people below that line. This shows a disproportionate regional burden; 43.5% is the share of Brazil's poor living there, not the proportion of Northeast residents in poverty. The figures establish a distribution, not the cause of poverty or a direct measure of political tension. IBGE, Social Indicators 2023, pp74–75.

Policies that broaden access to education, transport, secure employment and representation can reduce exclusion. Redistribution may raise disputes over who pays and whether institutions are trusted. Future outcomes depend on both economic changes and political responses; a rising national GDP can coexist with unresolved regional grievances.

Fragility and state legitimacy

A state can have recognised sovereignty while its ability to provide security, services and accountable authority varies across its territory.