7.8 - Changing ties and geopolitical tensions

China and African economic relationships

Trade, investment and lending connect China's demand and capabilities to the different priorities of African countries.

China can gain access to resources, markets and diplomatic partnerships. An African government may seek transport, electricity, export earnings and industrial jobs. A new transport link can lower costs and connect producers to ports; investment can transfer skills if contracts and training support it. However, an enclave exporting raw materials may create limited local supply chains. Benefits depend on procurement, wages, taxation, local participation and what the project produces.

In the September 2024 FOCAC Beijing Action Plan for 2025–2027, China committed financial support totalling RMB360 billion over three years: RMB210 billion in credit lines, RMB80 billion in various forms of assistance and at least RMB70 billion in investment by Chinese companies. These are different forms of support. Credit lines are not grants, and an announced commitment is not proof that every project or payment occurred. The jointly negotiated plan is primary evidence of intended cooperation, not an independent impact evaluation. FOCAC action plan, section 2.3.

Lending creates obligations as well as opportunities. If project revenue or export earnings disappoint, debt service can reduce funds for services. Yet debt difficulties may involve many lenders and domestic choices. Zambia's 2023–2024 restructuring involved official creditors and Eurobond holders; the IMF's June 2024 report records progress with both. This challenges a simple claim that all debt problems have one creditor or one cause. IMF, 26 June 2024.

Environmental effects also vary. Mining or construction can remove habitats, pollute water and require relocation; electricity and transport can expand production and emissions. Renewable projects and environmental safeguards can reduce some harms. African governments, firms, workers and communities have agency and different interests. Ask whose benefits and costs are measured, at what scale, and against which alternative project.

Asian influence and regional tensions

Growing economic weight can give Asian countries greater bargaining power without making the region politically unified.

China's production networks and large market give suppliers and trading partners reasons to maintain good relations. India can gain influence through its market, skilled services and diplomatic relationships. Larger economies can finance infrastructure, set technical standards or strengthen military capabilities. Firms may reorganise supply chains around new centres of demand, increasing the significance of ports and routes across Asia.

Interdependence has two possible effects. Trade can make confrontation costly because firms and workers depend on cross-border links. It can also create vulnerability if a country depends heavily on one market, supplier or route. Governments may diversify suppliers, protect an industry or strengthen security partnerships. Economic competition can then become political disagreement about standards, subsidies, market access and strategic infrastructure.

Territorial disputes are a further source of tension: the South and East China Sea cases show that trade links do not remove disagreements about jurisdiction or security. Smaller states may cooperate economically with one power while seeking security reassurance from another. Such hedging aims to preserve choices; it does not necessarily mean joining a single exclusive sphere. ASEAN-led dialogue supplies opportunities for cooperation, but member states have different interests and relationships. ASEAN community framework.

Avoid reasoning that “Asia is rising, so every Asian country gains equally”. National and regional inequality, contrasting political systems and different sectoral strengths shape the results. A larger regional share of economic activity can coexist with rivalry within that region.

Middle Eastern tensions and energy links

Middle Eastern geopolitical relationships combine strategic energy routes with political, cultural and environmental pressures.

The region includes varied societies and governments. Religious identities, including Sunni and Shia traditions, can influence political alignments, but do not mechanically determine a state's interests or every person's beliefs. Nationalism, territorial disputes, political systems, Palestinian and Israeli claims and experiences, external alliances and the actions of armed groups create overlapping tensions. Treat any player's claimed ideology as evidence to interpret, not a complete causal explanation.