7.3 - Emerging powers and development theories

Emerging powers and global governance

An emerging power matters internationally when its decisions alter markets, institutions or environmental outcomes beyond its borders. Brazil, Russia, India and China form the original BRIC grouping used in the specification. It is a comparison label, not proof that these countries have identical economies or interests; Russia also inherited major military and diplomatic capacities from the Soviet Union.

BRIC countries and other G20 members can influence global demand, investment and production. Indonesia's market, Türkiye's regional connections or Saudi Arabia's energy production can matter without each becoming a superpower. The G20's 2025 South African presidency listed 19 countries plus the EU and, following its admission in 2023, the African Union. It is a coordination forum, not a world government; membership gives opportunities to shape agendas, while implementation still depends on participating governments. G20 membership, 2025 presidency.

Environmental governance creates another route to influence. Large economies affect energy demand and emissions; forest-rich countries affect carbon storage and biodiversity. At UN Climate Change Conferences, governments negotiate collective rules and expectations, while national policies determine delivery. Finance, technology and development needs influence their negotiating positions. An emerging power can therefore be essential to a climate agreement even if its military reach is limited.

For a dated example, China's 2021 climate contribution stated aims to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. India's August 2022 contribution committed to reduce the emissions intensity of GDP by 45% by 2030 relative to 2005. These are different measures: reducing emissions per unit of output does not necessarily reduce total emissions if output grows. They are historical commitments, not a statement of the latest pledge or proof of implementation. China's 2021 contribution, India's August 2022 decision.

Influence and responsibility are related but different. Economic size may strengthen a government's bargaining position; it can also increase pressure to contribute to collective solutions. Domestic access to affordable energy, jobs and food can shape attitudes towards an international proposal.

Evolving strengths and constraints

Emerging powers have different combinations of strengths and constraints. Compare the dimensions of power rather than treating rapid GDP growth as automatic progress towards global dominance.

These are explanatory comparisons, not a current league table or a claim that every place within a country has the same experience. Several dimensions can change together. A resource-price fall can reduce government revenue and military spending; educational investment can improve productivity and international attraction over decades. A geopolitical decision can change trade partners much faster.

Two dated observations test the comparisons. WIPO's 2024 Global Innovation Index placed China 11th, India 39th, Brazil 50th and Russia 59th. That indicates different innovation systems, but the composite index is not a direct measure of all geopolitical power. UN DESA's April 2023 population analysis projected India overtaking mainland China, while stressing uncertainty about the precise date. A demographic lead is consequently different from a lead in productivity or living standards. WIPO GII 2024, UN DESA, 2023.

The geographical conclusion should be conditional: explain which strength could advance influence, what could inhibit it, and over which timescale. A large population is an opportunity when people can obtain education and productive employment; without those conditions it is not an automatic demographic dividend.