A1, key topic 2 - The growth of tension in Europe, 1905–14

Balkan Nationalism And Rivalry

The Balkans mattered because it was where imperial weakness, nationalism and great-power rivalry met. The Ottoman Empire had once ruled much of south-eastern Europe, but by the early twentieth century its control had weakened. New or expanding Balkan states, including Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece and Montenegro, wanted territory and influence. Many people in the region also identified strongly with national or ethnic communities rather than with old imperial borders.

Serbian nationalism was especially important. Some Serbs wanted to unite South Slavs, including Serbs living outside Serbia, into a larger state. This was a direct challenge to Austria-Hungary, a multi-national empire that ruled over many different peoples. If South Slav nationalism spread among Serbs, Croats and Bosnians inside Austria-Hungary, it could weaken the empire from within.

Austria-Hungary therefore saw Serbia as more than a small neighbour. It saw Serbia as a political danger. Serbia, in turn, saw Austria-Hungary as blocking its national ambitions, especially in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Russia added another layer because it presented itself as a protector of Slavs and had interests in the Balkans. Germany mattered because it was Austria-Hungary's main ally.

This made Balkan problems internationally significant. A dispute between Austria-Hungary and Serbia might pull in Russia. If Russia moved, Germany might back Austria-Hungary. If Germany and Russia clashed, France and Britain could become involved through their own agreements and interests. The danger was not that every crisis automatically meant world war. The danger was that a local crisis could become a test of prestige for several great powers at once.

Misconception check: "Balkan nationalism" was not one single movement with one agreed aim. Serb, Bulgar, Greek, Albanian and other national ambitions could clash with each other as well as with Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire.

Bosnian Crisis, 1908-09

Bosnia and Herzegovina had been occupied and administered by Austria-Hungary since 1878, while still formally linked to the Ottoman Empire. In 1908, Austria-Hungary annexed Bosnia and Herzegovina, making its control official. This was a major blow to Serbian ambitions because many Serbs believed Bosnia should be linked to Serbia or to a wider South Slav state.

Austria-Hungary had several motives. It wanted to strengthen its position in the Balkans, take advantage of Ottoman weakness, and contain South Slav nationalism. Annexing Bosnia sent a message that Vienna, not Belgrade, would decide the future of the province.

Serbia reacted angrily but could not fight Austria-Hungary alone. It looked to Russia for support. Russia, however, had been weakened by defeat in the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-05 and by revolution in 1905. When Germany backed Austria-Hungary, Russia backed down. Serbia was forced to accept the annexation.

The crisis ended without war, but it mattered because of the bitterness it left behind:

The Bosnian Crisis is therefore important for causation. It did not cause war in 1908-09, but it changed expectations. Austria-Hungary learned that firm action with German support could work. Serbia learned that Austria-Hungary would block its ambitions. Russia learned that backing down damaged its prestige. Those memories mattered in 1914.

Balkan Wars, 1912-13

The Balkan Wars made the region more unstable. In the First Balkan War of 1912, the Balkan League - Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece and Montenegro - fought the Ottoman Empire. The Ottoman Empire lost almost all of its remaining European territory. This showed how weak Ottoman power had become and how ambitious the Balkan states were.

The allies then quarrelled over the spoils. In the Second Balkan War of 1913, Bulgaria fought Serbia, Greece and others over territory, especially Macedonia. Bulgaria was defeated, and Serbia emerged stronger. Serbia had gained land, military confidence and regional prestige.

Yet Serbia was also frustrated. It wanted access to the Adriatic Sea, but Austria-Hungary opposed this. The creation of an independent Albania, supported by the great powers, blocked Serbia's route to the sea. From Serbia's perspective, Austria-Hungary had again obstructed its national ambitions. From Austria-Hungary's perspective, a larger, more confident Serbia looked even more dangerous.

The wars affected the great-power balance too. Russia had encouraged Balkan cooperation partly to rebuild influence after the humiliation of 1908-09. Austria-Hungary worried that Serbia's victories would encourage South Slavs inside its own empire. Bulgaria, dissatisfied after defeat, looked more towards Austria-Hungary. The region became not calmer, but more tangled.

A strong explanation paragraph might say:

The Balkan Wars increased tension because they strengthened Serbia while increasing Austrian fear. Serbia gained territory and prestige after the Ottoman defeat and Bulgaria's defeat, but it was denied access to the Adriatic by the creation of Albania. This made Serbia resent Austria-Hungary, while Austria-Hungary saw Serbia as a growing nationalist threat. The wars therefore made a future Austro-Serbian crisis more dangerous.