03 Section B Option 3, Key question 3 - Religion's global resurgence and decline (part 4)
Religion can lose followers in one society while becoming more visible in another. This lesson compares global population change with evidence from the United States, Japan, Russia and India, showing why belief, practice, identity and public influence need separate investigation. These distinctions help you decide what evidence of religious resurgence or decline can actually establish.
What does religious significance mean?
Religion's significance concerns its place in people's lives and social institutions, rather than simply how many people use a religious label. Resurgence means a renewed increase after an earlier reduction or suppression; decline means a reduction in a specified dimension over a specified period. A religion that remains important has not necessarily experienced a resurgence.
Religiosity
The degree and forms of religious commitment or involvement. It can be investigated through beliefs, practices and the importance people attach to religion; affiliation alone does not measure all of these.
Four dimensions make a comparison clearer:
| Dimension | What a researcher might examine | What this alone cannot establish |
|---|---|---|
| Affiliation | Whether people identify as Christian, Muslim, Buddhist, another religion or none | How strongly they believe or how often they practise |
| Belief | Belief in deities, spirits, an afterlife or particular teachings | Membership of an organisation or its political power |
| Practice | Prayer, services, pilgrimage, household rituals or offerings | The meaning of the practice to each participant |
| Public influence | Religious organisations' roles in law, education, welfare, national identity and political mobilisation | The private convictions of the entire population |
These dimensions can move in different directions. In an original illustrative scenario, fewer people join a church, but that church gains influence over school policy through a successful political alliance. This would be declining affiliation alongside growing institutional influence. Neither cancels the other.
The comparison must also use appropriate measures. Weekly congregational attendance may reveal something important about a Christian congregation but miss religion practised mainly through household rituals. Asking only about belief in one creator God can miss traditions that do not centre on that belief. Use several indicators, explain what each measures and avoid ranking whole societies on a single culturally narrow scale.
Population growth is not rising commitment
A growing religious population does not necessarily mean that existing individuals have become more religious. Natural increase occurs when births exceed deaths. If a religious population is relatively young, many people may enter childbearing ages, so it can grow even without anyone joining through conversion. Religious switching means movement between religious identities, including movement into no religion. Migration can alter a country's composition, but moving across a border does not itself add adherents to a religion worldwide.
Pew Research Center's June 2025 reconstruction of the global religious landscape combines more than 2,700 censuses, surveys and other sources for 201 countries and territories. Its estimates include children and describe 2010–2020, rather than measuring change in 2025. The comparable 2010 figures were revised for this report. Pew's global report
| Global measure | 2010 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|
| Christian share of the population | 30.6% | 28.8% |
| Muslim share of the population | 23.8% | 25.6% |
| Religiously unaffiliated share | 23.3% | 24.2% |
Over the same decade, the estimated number of Christians increased by 122 million. This is possible because the world population grew faster: a group can gain people while losing population share. The fall from 30.6% to 28.8% is 1.8 percentage points, not a fall of 1.8% of the original Christian population. These figures describe identity, not the depth of faith.
Pew attributes much Muslim population growth to age structure and fertility; switching out of religion helps explain growth of the unaffiliated. Its switching analysis compares respondents' reported childhood and adult identities, so it does not isolate every switch made specifically during 2010–2020. Sources and classifications vary, and these are harmonised estimates rather than one worldwide census. Pew's analysis of demographic mechanisms
An original numerical example shows why the mechanism matters. Imagine a group grows from 100 to 120 people through births and deaths, while the proportion practising regularly remains one half. Regular practitioners rise from 50 to 60 without any rise in the practice rate. Increased numbers can create demand for more religious buildings without establishing greater individual commitment.
A projection estimates a possible future from assumptions about fertility, mortality, migration, transmission and switching. It is not an observed future count. Changing assumptions can change the outcome; a claim that a religion will grow must identify its period and assumptions before it becomes evidence for a future resurgence.
Decline and persistence in the United States and Japan
Evidence of decline is strongest when it specifies the population, indicator and period being compared. Pew's Religious Landscape Studies found that the Christian share of US adults fell from 78% in 2007 to 62% in 2023–2024; the unaffiliated share rose from 16% to 29%. The latest study surveyed 36,908 adults. It also found that 83% believed in God or a universal spirit, showing why loss of Christian identity is not equivalent to universal rejection of spiritual belief. Pew's surveys indicated relative stability in the Christian share between 2019 and 2024, so the long decline should not be presented as a constant annual fall or a demonstrated reversal. Pew's 2023–2024 US study
Repeated surveys can reveal population change without showing that every former believer changed in the same way. They also need comparable questions and methods: the latest US study mainly used online and paper responses, whereas the earlier studies used telephone interviews. Pew checked comparability with an additional telephone study. This supports careful trend analysis, not the assumption that survey design is irrelevant. Pew's survey methodology
Japan demonstrates a different combination. In Pew's 2023 survey, just 6% of Japanese adults said religion was very important in their lives, yet 70% reported making food, water or drink offerings to honour or care for ancestors in the previous year. The wider study interviewed 10,390 adults across Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam, with telephone interviews in Japan. These are Japanese results within that study, not results for all Asians. Pew's East Asian societies study
An ancestral offering may express spiritual belief, family duty, cultural continuity or a mixture; the action alone cannot settle its personal meaning. Equally, low stated importance does not make the action disappear. A researcher interested in that meaning could add interviews to the survey, rather than decide in advance that respondents must be either fully religious or fully secular. Pew's account of ancestral practices
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